The numbers — and Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne — say otherwise.

Wynne said Tuesday that one of the main reasons Godfrey was fired was over the lottery corporation’s poor handling of the horse-racing file. Clearly, the lottery corporation and former premier Dalton McGuinty badly mishandled that file, injuring an industry that supports 30,000 full-time equivalent jobs and hurting the Liberals politically in rural Ontario.

Meanwhile, lottery corporation financial statements certainly indicate the modernization plan brought in under Godfrey’s reign should be under heavy scrutiny by taxpayers. Not only did the first phase of the plan scrap the lottery corporation’s most lucrative sector, the Slots at Racetracks Program that returned $1.1 billion in revenue annually, but also the main thrust of the plan calls for pouring more money into casino expansion across Ontario.

Given the numbers, that sounds like a bad strategy at best. Certainly, it made it extremely unlikely Godfrey was going to be able to make good on his chief mandate to increase gaming revenue back to provincial coffers.

The province’s four resort-style casinos have, collectively, lost money for six straight fiscal years. The total loss is some $360 million.

Over the same time period, the 17 racetrack slots operations, coupled with Ontario’s six smaller charity casinos, have brought in $5.6 billion in profits. That averages out to $2.6 million in profits per day.

At the same time, the lottery corporation has been pouring money into its money-losing operations. It has spent about $1.63 billion in six years on marketing and freebies and cash incentives to gamblers just at the four resort casinos. That’s about 31 per cent of the gambling revenue at those sites and nearly four times as much as it spent to promote all 23 racetrack slots and charity casino operations combined ($440 million – about eight per cent of the gaming revenue at those locations).

Not that all that promotion has helped stop the bleeding at the resort casinos. Attendance dropped 25 per cent from 2007 to 2012 from some 55,000 daily visits to a little more than 41,000.

Combined gambling revenue at the four resorts is down 28 per cent over that same time period.

Meanwhile, revenue at the 23 racetrack slots and charity casinos has remained relatively unchanged over six years.

Jobs at the racetrack slots and charity casinos have also remained relatively stagnant over six years from 6,420 to 6,370.

Not so at the resort casinos. The number of employees at the four sites combined is down almost 16 per cent from 11,790 employees to 9,931.

Further, slot machines at racetracks and charity casinos are 61 per cent more profitable when compared to slots at the resort casinos. The average annual revenue per machine was $156,000 at the tracks and charity casinos, compared to $96,600 at the resort casinos.

Though the future of horse racing in Ontario still remains wildly uncertain, naturally, most people in the industry aren’t sad to see Godfrey fired or the entire lottery corporation board resign in protest.

Beyond the horse racing mess and many missteps in trying to place a casino in downtown Toronto, salaries at the lottery corporation skyrocketed during Godfrey’s term despite a strong edict from the political masters that all government agencies were to cap salaries.

Opposition political parties are suggesting firing Godfrey is just Wynne’s attempt to get out in front of a possibly scathing Auditor General’s report into the lottery corporation’s modernization plan and the decision to end the racetrack slots program. A report could be released in June.

Whether the reason was politics, poor performance or both, it’s difficult to believe Godfrey when he says there wasn’t a particularly good reason he was fired.

A total of 107 stakes races, worth over $20.25 million, are scheduled.

The first portion of the stakes calendar, which features 37 added-money races through July 7, including the date of the 154^th Queen’s Plate, was announced in March.

Key features in the “second half” of the schedule include traditional late season spotlight events, the Ricoh Woodbine Mile and Pattison Canadian International.

The Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile is set for Sunday, September 15 this year. The Mile is once again a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” event (Turf Mile), as is its filly and mare companion on the date, the Grade 2, $300,000 Canadian Stakes (Filly & Mare Turf).  Also on the power-packed card is the Grade 1, $300,000 Northern Dancer Stakes and the Grade 3, $150,000 Ontario Derby.

Many racing fans will remember Wise Dan crushing a strong field in the Mile last year en route to a multiple Eclipse Award-winning campaign, including Horse of the Year.

“The Ricoh Woodbine Mile is a premier event in the Thoroughbred racing world,” said Steve Koch, WEG’s Vice-President of Thoroughbred Racing, “Wise Dan obviously reinforces that distinction. We anticipate offering another brilliant field of world-class horses for the Mile, as well as the Northern Dancer, the Canadian and Ontario Derby that day.”

The Grade 1, $1 million Pattison Canadian International and its filly and mare complement, the Grade 1, $500,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes has found a later spot on the calendar. The pair is now set for Sunday, October 27.

“The later date allows every opportunity for runners coming out of major U.S. and European races to take advantage of Woodbine’s turf course,” said Koch.  “Those that run well here usually move on to other races besides the Breeders’ Cup later in the year, such as Hong Kong or Japan.”

Three other “Win and You’re In” races are set for Woodbine. The Grade 1, $300,000 Nearctic Stakes returns as a WAYI race (Turf Sprint) and is set for Sunday, October 13, as does the Grade 2 two-year-old turf events, the $200,000 Natalma Stakes (Juvenile Fillies Turf) and $200,000 Summer Stakes, presented by TVG (Juvenile Turf). Both are set for Saturday, September 14.

The third and turf jewel of Canada’s Triple Crown, the $500,000 Breeders’ Stakes, is set for Sunday, August 18 at Woodbine. The Prince of Wales, the middle gem, is scheduled for Tuesday, July 30 at Fort Erie.

The entire Woodbine stakes schedule follows:

2013 Stakes Schedule

April

$150,000 STAR SHOOT STAKES – Saturday, April 20

$150,000 WOODSTOCK STAKES – Sunday, April 21

$150,000 JACQUES CARTIER STAKES – Saturday, April 27

$150,000 WHIMSICAL STAKES – Sunday, April 28 (Gr.3)

May

$150,000 FURY STAKES* – Saturday, May 4

$150,000 QUEENSTON STAKES* – Saturday, May 11

$200,000 ECLIPSE STAKES – Sunday, May 12 (Gr.2)

$125,000 BALLADE STAKES** – Saturday, May 18

$150,000 SELENE STAKES – Sunday, May 19 (Gr.3)

$125,000 NEW PROVIDENCE STAKES** – Monday, May 20

$125,000 LADY ANGELA STAKES** – Saturday, May 25

$200,000 NASSAU STAKES – Saturday, May 25 (Gr.2, Turf)

$150,000 MARINE STAKES – Saturday, May 26

$200,000 CONNAUGHT CUP STAKES – Saturday, May 26 (Gr.2, Turf)

June

$150,000 HENDRIE STAKES – Saturday, June 1 (Gr.3)

$150,000 VIGIL STAKES – Sunday, June 2 (Gr. 3)

$125,000 BOLD RUCKUS STAKES** – Saturday, June 8 (Turf)

$125,000 TRILLIUM STAKES – Saturday, June 8

$500,000 WOODBINE OAKS STAKES, presented by Budweiser*** – Sunday, June 9

$150,000 PLATE TRIAL STAKES*** – Sunday, June 9

$125,000 ALYWOW STAKES – Sunday, June 9 (Turf)

$125,000 ZADRACARTA STAKES* – Saturday, June 15 (Turf)

$125,000 STEADY GROWTH STAKES** – Saturday, June 15

$150,000 VICTORIA PARK STAKES – Sunday, June 16

$150,000 VICTORIA STAKES – Saturday, June 22

$200,000 KING EDWARD STAKES – Sunday, June 23 (Gr.2, Turf)

$150,000 ACHIEVEMENT STAKES* – Saturday, June 29

$250,000 BISON CITY STAKES*** – Sunday, June 30

July

$150,000 DOMINION DAY STAKES – Monday, July 1 (Gr.3)

$150,000 MY DEAR STAKES – Saturday, July 6

$125,000 SWEET BRIAR TOO STAKES – Saturday, July 6

$125,000 CHARLIE BARLEY STAKES – Saturday, July 6 (Turf)

$1,000,000 QUEEN’S PLATE STAKES*** – Sunday, July 7

$200,000 HIGHLANDER STAKES – Sunday, July 7 (Gr.2, Turf)

$150,000 SINGSPIEL STAKES Sunday, July 7 (Gr.3, Turf)

$150,000 CLARENDON STAKES* – Sunday, July 7

$200,000 DANCE SMARTLY STAKES – Sunday, July 7 (Gr.2, Turf)

$125,000 PASSING MOOD STAKES** – Saturday, July 13(Turf)

$150,000 ONTARIO DAMSEL STAKES* – Sunday, July 14 (Turf)

$150,000 SHADY WELL STAKES* – Sunday, July 14

$150,000 BOLD VENTURE STAKES – Wednesday, July 17 (Gr.3)

$125,000 COLIN STAKES – Saturday, July 20

$150,000 ONTARIO MATRON STAKES – Saturday, July 20 (Gr.3)

$200,000 NIJINSKY STAKES – Sunday, July 21 (Gr.2, Turf)

$125,000 DUCHESS STAKES – Saturday, July 21

$125,000 DEPUTY MINISTER STAKES** – Wednesday, July 24

$125,000 TORONTO CUP STAKES – Saturday, July 27 (Turf)

$150,000 ROYAL NORTH STAKES – Sunday, July 28 (Gr.3, Turf)

$500,000 PRINCE OF WALES STAKES *** – Tuesday, July 30 – Run at Fort Erie

$125,000 VICTORIANA STAKES** – Wednesday, July 31 (Turf)

August

$150,000 SEAGRAM CUP STAKES – Saturday, August 03 (Gr.3)

$125,000 NANDI STAKES** – Saturday, August 3

$250,000 WONDER WHERE STAKES*** – Sunday, August 4 (Turf)

$125,000 SHEPPERTON STAKES** – Monday, August 5

$125,000 ETERNAL SEARCH STAKES** – Monday, August 5

$150,000 ONTARIO DEBUTANTE STAKES – Saturday, August 10

$150,000 VANDAL STAKES* – Sunday, August 11

$150,000 ONTARIO COLLEEN STAKES – Saturday, August 17 (Gr.3, Turf)

$500,000 BREEDERS’ STAKES*** – Sunday, August 18 (Turf)

$200,000 SKY CLASSIC STAKES – Sunday, August 18 (Gr.2, Turf)

$125,000 SWYNFORD STAKES – Saturday, August 24

$200,000 PLAY THE KING STAKES – Sunday, August 25 (Gr. 2, Turf)

$200,000 MUSKOKA STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28

$200,000 SIMCOE STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28

$125,000 KENORA STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28

$125,000 ELGIN STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28

$125,000 ALGOMA STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28

$125,000 HALTON STAKES*** – Wednesday, August 28 (Turf)

$150,000 SEAWAY STAKES – Saturday, August 31 (Gr. 3)

September

$125,000 VICE REGENT STAKES** – Sunday, September 1 (Turf)

$125,000 LA PREVOYANTE STAKES** – Saturday, September 7 (Turf)

$200,000 NATALMA STAKES -Saturday, September 14 (Gr.2, Turf) WAYI

$200,000 SUMMER STAKES – Saturday, September 14 (Gr.2, Turf) WAYI

$1,000,000 RICOH WOODBINE MILE – Sunday, September 15 (Gr.1, Turf) WAYI

$300,000 NORTHERN DANCER TURF – Sunday, September 15 (Gr.1, Turf)

$300,000 CANADIAN STAKES – Sunday, September 15 (Gr.2, Turf) WAYI

$150,000 ONTARIO DERBY – Sunday, September 15 (Gr.3)

$125,000 LA LORGNETTE STAKES – Saturday, September 21

$125,000 OVERSKATE STAKES** – Sunday, September 22

$125,000 VICTORIAN QUEEN STAKES** – Saturday, September 28

$125,000 CLASSY’N SMART STAKES** – Sunday, September 29

October

$150,000 MAZARINE STAKES – Saturday, October 5 (Gr.3)

$150,000 GREY STAKES – Sunday, October 6 (Gr.3)

$150,000 DURHAM CUP STAKES – Sunday, October 6 (Gr.3)

$150,000 CAROTENE STAKES* – Saturday, October 12 (Turf)

$300,000 NEARCTIC STAKES – Sunday, October 13 (Gr.1, Turf) WAYI

$125,000 BULL PAGE STAKES** – Monday, October 14

$125,000 BUNTY LAWLESS STAKES** – Sunday, October 20 (Turf)

$250,000 CUP & SAUCER STAKES*** – Sunday, October 20 (Turf)

$150,000 FANFRELUCHE STAKES* – Saturday, October 26

$1,000,000 PATTISON CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL – Sunday, October 27 (Gr.1, Turf)

$500,000 E.P.TAYLOR STAKES -Sunday, October 27 (Gr.1, Turf)

November

$250,000 PRINCESS ELIZABETH STAKES*** – Sunday, November 2

$150,000 MAPLE LEAF STAKES – Saturday, November 2 (Gr.3)

$150,000 ONTARIO FASHION STAKES – Sunday, November 3 (Gr.3)

$125,000 FROST KING STAKES** – Saturday, November 9

$150,000 AUTUMN STAKES – Sunday, November 10 (Gr.2)

$150,000 JAMMED LOVELY STAKES* – Saturday, November 16

$250,000 CORONATION FUTURITY*** – Sunday, November 17

$125,000 GLORIOUS SONG STAKES – Saturday, November 23

$125,000 SOUTH OCEAN STAKES** – Sunday, November 24

$150,000 KENNEDY ROAD STAKES – Saturday, November 30 (Gr.2)

December

$150,000 BESSARABIAN STAKES – Sunday, December 1 (Gr.2)

$125,000 SIR BARTON STAKES** – Wednesday, December 4

$125,000 KINGARVIE STAKES** – Saturday, December 7

$125,000 DISPLAY STAKES – Sunday, December 8

$150,000 ONTARIO LASSIE STAKES* – Saturday, December 14

$150,000 VALEDICTORY STAKES – Sunday, December 15 (Gr.3)

*starters must be foaled in Ontario

**starters must be sired by Ontario-based stallions

***starters must be foaled in Canada

WAYI “Win and You’re In”

During a visit to Windsor on Wednesday,Wynne said a proposal from a Lakeshore group remains under review.

The group wants more harness racing at the Leamington fairgrounds this summer. It also wants a track and full-time racing in Lakeshore.

Lakeshore Mayor Tom Bain is a horse owner who’s involved and is optimistic the province will come through.

“She’s out now to help the horse racing industry. And if she’s helping the horse racing industry, then she’s helping southwestern Ontario,” Bain said. “I had the opportunity to discuss it with the premier in a very brief meeting, but I’m satisfied that her and Minister [Teresa] Piruzza are certainly working to help us out.”

Bain admits time is running out, because the racing season begins in June.

Wynne says she is committed to keeping the horse racing industry as part of the gaming strategy in the province.

“I just want everyone to know that I’m committed to continuing to work with tracks to make sure that horse racing is viable across the province,” Wynne said.

In neon green shirts emblazoned with “Woodbine Jobs,” jockeys, horse trainers and other Woodbine Racetrack “horse people” watched their dream of a full casino die by a four-vote margin at Toronto City Council on Tuesday.

Horse racing and casino hosting fees were behind Paul Godfrey’s firing as chair of the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. last week, Premier Kathleen Wynne acknowledged Tuesday.

“We are shocked and disappointed by Toronto City Council’s actions, which have put thousands of jobs at risk. Despite the fact that a majority of Torontonians supported expanded gaming at Woodbine, council rejected an opportunity to protect 7500 existing jobs in Toronto and tens of thousands more throughout the province,” said Nick Eaves, President and CEO of WEG. “Now, with all those jobs in jeopardy, we need to get this right and look forward to continuing the dialogue with Premier Wynne to ensure they are not lost.”

Since the province’s cancellation of the Slots at Racetracks Program and throughout the Toronto casino debate, WEG has consistently warned that without the long-term, sustainable revenue offered by expansion of the existing gaming facility at Woodbine, its horse racing operations – and, by extension, the entire sector – would be at risk.

“Woodbine is vital to the horse racing industry and thousands of people in communities across Ontario whose livelihoods depend on it,” Eaves said. “We are deeply concerned that Council’s decision may open the door for a competing casino in a neighbouring municipality, which could be devastating to our operations, to our core business and to horse racing in Ontario.

“Premier Wynne, who is also the Minister of Agriculture, has indicated that horse racing will be part of Ontario’s new gaming strategy going forward. With this in mind, we want to work with her to ensure that horse racing and the 55,000 jobs it supports across this province have a viable, sustainable future.”

Ontario’s four premier resort-style casinos have lost a combined $360 million in the past six years while handing out $1.6 billion in freebies and cash incentives to gamblers at those same facilities.

Meanwhile, the province’s 17 racetrack slots facilities — three of which have closed and the rest face elimination or restructuring by Ontario’s gambling regulator — and six smaller charity casinos have recorded $5.6 billion in profits over the last six fiscal years.

Since 2007, the 23 racetrack slot facilities and charity casinos have churned out average profits of $2.6 million a day while Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. has spent nearly $1.1 million a day over the same period on freebies, cash incentives, marketing and promotion just on the four money-losing major casinos located in Niagara Falls, Windsor and Rama.

The four major casinos have collectively lost money for six straight years and gone from recording a combined net profit of $108 million in 2006 to combined losses of nearly $80 million last year.

The recent trend of financial results for OLG’s gambling operations raises important questions about the casino model being considered for Hamilton.

OLG is in the midst of a modernization process intended to overhaul the gambling industry in Ontario, particularly the types of facilities that will exist in the future.

For places like Hamilton and Toronto which currently don’t have casinos, that likely means a swing away from a slot machines-at-racetracks model to full-fledged casinos with slot machines, table games and amenities that could include restaurants, entertainment and hotels.

In other words, a model that mimics OLG’s four money-losing resort-style casinos.

Robert Williams, a University of Lethbridge professor and one of Canada’s leading researchers on gambling issues, raises questions about OLG’s change in strategy.

“To its credit, Ontario has held out and hasn’t put a casino in Toronto and Hamilton because it doesn’t make any sense from either an economic or social standpoint,” said Williams, who obtained a PhD in psychology from McMaster University. “If this was such a good idea — placing casinos in Toronto and Hamilton — why wouldn’t it have been done 25 years ago?

“To me it’s more analogous to an addict running out of veins to tap.”

OLG has divided the province into 29 zones and invited municipalities and the private sector to work together to create a new gambling landscape for the province.

First on the chopping block are the racetrack slot machine sites, which have helped keep horse racing tracks alive for the past decade thanks to the $345 million in slot machine revenues pumped annually into racing purses.

“As long as slots facilities are linked to individual racetracks, OLG is unable to consider alternate locations for gaming sites,” according to an OLG background document. “Over time, this has resulted in the location of gaming facilities in places unrelated to customer interest.”

About half of the remaining racetrack slots are located in smaller communities or rural settings, such as Flamboro Downs.

“Our world has changed so significantly and we cannot continue to sustain the business model that we have and be able to appease the customers,” said Larry Flynn, OLG’s senior vice-president of gaming.

“One of the disadvantages of our current model and why we need to modernize is that our customers are very sophisticated and they’re very accustomed to the different offerings that resort properties would give both in the U.S. and beyond,” Flynn added.

“The new model is about trying to find the right amenities in the right location in the areas where the majority of customers are situated so they’re not driving a significant distance.”

As part of its modernization plan, OLG wants to be more consumer-responsive, efficient and expand the private sector’s role in gambling delivery. By 2017, it also wants to add another $1.3 billion in net annual profits directed to the provincial government on top of the nearly $2 billion already provided each year.

Debate over the possible location for a new Hamilton casino has divided residents between those who favour expanding the current Flamboro Downs site and those who prefer a downtown location to help spur additional development.

People in Hamilton are also split on the need for a casino at all. A Spectator telephone survey of 5,400 residents last fall showed 56 per cent opposed a casino in Hamilton.

Hamilton’s business community appears to be just as divided as the rest of the city on the issue of a casino.

A survey of businesses conducted by the local Chamber of Commerce earlier this year showed a near-even split between those that did and those that didn’t want a casino, and the same split between the downtown and the current Flamborough slots site as the location if Hamilton does proceed with a casino.

In February, Hamilton councillors designated Flamboro Downs as the preferred site for a new casino, but a downtown location could still be considered if private-sector bidders can show Flamboro Downs wouldn’t be a viable option.

A month later, OLG announced that the racetrack slots program at Flamboro Downs would continue for another five years as part of a new agreement, muddying the waters in the short term on what might happen with any future casino proposal for Hamilton.

And just last month, Ontario’s auditor general was asked investigate OLG on a number of fronts: everything from the transparency of the proposed casino expansion process, to the transparency of the payment formulae for host municipalities, to revenue projections, to the economic impact of cancelling the funding for the racetrack slots program.

Norm Schleehahn, the city’s manager of business development and the point person on casino issues, declined to comment on OLG’s financial performance and the implications for Hamilton.

“Unfortunately, I simply can not make comments on OLG actions related to casino operations, revenues and strategies,” Schleehahn stated in response to an interview request.

OLG’s modernization plan sank further into disarray last week with the surprise announcement that the Liberal government had abruptly sacked chairman Paul Godfrey. Within hours, OLG’s entire seven-member board of directors resigned in protest

• • •

OLG’s year-to-year financial results since 2007 raise some red flags about gambling in Ontario.

A Spectator examination of OLG’s annual reports from the past six years shows:

• Attendance has taken a nose dive at Ontario’s four resort casinos.

Between 2007 and 2012, the average daily attendance at the four casinos in Niagara Falls, Windsor and Rama has plunged by 25 per cent, from nearly 55,000 daily visits to just over 41,000.

Gaming revenue at the four casinos, not surprisingly, has taken almost the same hit. Combined gaming revenue fell from $1.69 billion in 2006 to $1.21 billion in 2012, a decline of 28 per cent.

Gaming revenue at the 23 racetrack slots and charity casinos has remained essentially unchanged for the past five years.

“The business has really been flat over the last number of years,” said Flynn. “We certainly have tried to drive as much efficiency and manage the properties as best we can but like any business, you need to constantly look for ways to do it differently.”

•OLG spends nearly four times as much on freebies and incentives at its four resort casinos than it does on the other 23 racetrack slots and charity casinos combined.

Between 2007 and 2012, OLG spent about $1.63 billion at the four resort casinos on so-called promotional allowances, such as cash rewards, gifts and free hotel rooms, compared to about $440 million at the 23 other gambling sites.

• In the past six years, OLG has spent $3.2 billion on promotional allowances, marketing and promotions for all of its gambling sites.

At the four resort casinos, incentives, marketing and promotions chewed up 31 per cent of all gambling revenue in the 2011 fiscal year.

At the charity casinos and racetrack slots, the proportion of gambling revenue spent on incentives, marketing and promotions was just 8.3 per cent.

• In 2011, OLG spent more than 14 times as much money on incentives, marketing and promotion as it did on promoting responsible gambling.

The practice of offering rewards to gamblers is a sensitive one, since those who qualify for the largest rewards are those who gamble the most.

A 2007 study co-authored by Williams and his Lethbridge colleague Robert Wood showed that more than a third of total gambling expenditures in Ontario come from problem gamblers, a tiny fraction representing less than 4 per cent of the overall gambling clientele.

“We’re in the promotions or loyalty program business because it’s something customers have grown to expect,” said Flynn. “We understand there certainly are people with problems who game at our facilities and we’ve tried to put into place programs that would help them help themselves, like self-exclusion.

“We have certainly invested significantly more money than any other jurisdiction in North America in these programs we have and educating employees.”

• Jobs are often cited as one of the spinoff benefits for communities that host a gambling facility.

But at Ontario’s four resort casinos, the number of employees has actually declined by nearly 16 per cent since the 2007 fiscal year, from 11,790 employees to 9,931 last year.

At the racetrack slots and charity casinos, the number of employees declined slightly between 2007 and 2012, from 6,420 to 6,370.

That number will likely drop noticeably in the 2013 fiscal year, though, now that three racetrack slot operations have since closed.

The three that closed were in the border municipalities of Fort Erie, Windsor and Sarnia — a further sign that Ontario’s gambling world has become more insular.

• OLG acknowledges that the bulk of its customer base is “aging rapidly,” according to a 2012 strategic business review. Nearly 80 per cent of the gambling customer base is older than 50.

The conundrum for OLG? Nearly 90 per cent of its gaming revenue comes from slot machines, “which have limited appeal to players under 45,” OLG reports.

In 2011, the average annual revenue per slot machine at the resort casinos was $96,600. At the racetrack slots, average revenue per machine was $156,000.

“It doesn’t really matter where you put those things because the revenue per machine is roughly equivalent,” said Williams. “It doesn’t matter if you put these machines in a fancy casino or a racetrack or with table games.

“The less you spend on the accompanying structure, the more profitable you’re going to be.”

• • •

A money-losing casino? Surely it’s an oxymoron, like jumbo shrimp or pretty ugly.

But it’s not as far-fetched as you might think.

There’s a cautionary tale to be found south of the border in the heavily populated tri-state area of New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware — which encompasses the traditional gambling haven of Atlantic City and the large metropolitan areas surrounding Philadelphia and New York City.

A recent academic paper on gambling trends in the three states showed that gambling revenues in Atlantic City, which had a monopoly on casino gaming for decades, plunged when casinos opened a few years ago in Pennsylvania. As new gambling sites opened, they simply cannibalized business from other locations.

In just six years, gambling revenue in New Jersey fell by nearly half, dropping from $5.2 billion in 2006 to $3 billion in 2012.

The Revel casino in Atlantic City, built for $2.6 billion, opened just last year and it has already filed for bankruptcy protection.

But more importantly, the study also showed that the overall amount of gambling declined as well, even as the number of venues increased.

Now Pennsylvania, which poached a good chunk of its business from Atlantic City, is facing its own pressures. Gambling revenues in the state have dropped in five of the last six months compared to the same month a year earlier.

Here in Ontario, three of the four resort casinos — Windsor and the two in Niagara Falls — were strategically situated near the U.S. border to attract American tourists, particularly those from the border states of New York and Michigan, which didn’t have gambling options nearby.

Since then, however, the Canadian dollar has risen to par with its American counterpart, gas is more expensive, passports are required to cross the border and casinos are now scattered across virtually every U.S. state.

Between 1998 and 2008, the number of Americans crossing into Windsor, for example, dropped by 74 per cent. There are also casinos now in Detroit and Niagara Falls, N.Y.

The days of relying on Americans as a reliable source of gambling revenue are likely over, according to Williams, the Lethbridge professor.

“It’s a bit naive to think people are going to come to Ontario from anywhere else to gamble and spend multiple days at a hotel complex,” said Williams. “No matter where you place your casinos, it’s all going to be local people from here on in.”

Williams believes large resort-style casinos no longer make sense in Ontario.

“Anyone who’s going to gamble at any Ontario venue from here on in are going to be Ontario residents and they aren’t going to spend a couple of days as would American tourists,” he said. “People are going to drive there and drive home.”

Under OLG’s new zoning model, there could be full-fledged casinos in Toronto, Etobicoke, Milton, Hamilton, Brantford and two in Niagara Falls.

Flynn said southern Ontario’s population can support them, and he expects the gambling base to actually increase.

“I don’t believe it will be just taking the same number of customers,” said Flynn. “The full objective here is to be able to provide for those customers who aren’t making a choice to participate in gaming because they can’t access product when they want or the type of product they want.

Hamilton Ward 4 Councillor Sam Merulla, a spirited opponent to a downtown casino, says OLG’s business plan isn’t working. It’s also objectionable, he added.

“Rather than targeting tourists, they’re now looking at targeting Ontarians,” said Merulla. “But what really becomes more insulting is that they cannibalize people in areas and in cities that are the most marginalized, such as Hamilton.

“OLG, from my perspective, governs themselves no different than a common crack dealer,” he added.

It’s not an analogy Merulla uses flippantly. While he’s known primarily as a city councillor, Merulla is also an addictions counsellor by trade.

Merulla worries that those in the lower inner city, where poverty rates are highest, might not have had the opportunities to travel to the larger casinos in the past. With a casino easily accessible in downtown Hamilton, however, Merulla fears participation rates and social problems will inevitably increase.

“When you’re trying to put a casino in a downtown core rather than leave it in Flamborough, what they’re telling us is that we know there is a significant amount of people who are impoverished or vulnerable yet have some disposable income,” said Merulla. “And we don’t care how much that disposable income is, we just want a share of it.

“A crack dealer doesn’t stand in the middle of Flamborough waving down cars,” he said.

“They go into the heart of a city where the people are, to try to get them hooked.”

A big downtown casino may be “essentially dead,” but many city councillors want to bury it.

They hope a solid majority of the 45-member city council will do that by voting to reject a casino during a special meeting Tuesday.

Mayor Rob Ford had originally called the meeting and wanted council to vote yes for a casino, after touting for months the “10,000 good-paying jobs” he said it would bring.

Ford changed his mind and cancelled the meeting in the face of councillor opposition and news the city would only get $53.7 million a year for hosting the facility, far short of the minimum $100 million he wanted.

The mayor declared the “casino debate essentially dead.”

Not so fast, said anti-casino councillors. They revived the meeting, after a majority of councillors said they wanted one.

Their purpose is to vote down the casino once and for all, leaving no confusion about council’s position.

Anti-casino councillors worried that Ford’s plan to shelve the city manager’s voluminous casino report next month leaves the door open a crack for casinos and their lobbyists to keep pushing.

There’s a feeling in city hall circles that no issue is ever truly settled until there’s a debate and unequivocal vote at council. In this case, the issue is so important that council needs to make a statement, said anti-casino Councillor Mike Layton.

“The province has asked for a decision from us, and that’s what I’m prepared to give them,” Layton said.

Ford and his brother, Councillor Doug Ford, had been avid casino boosters, using their weekly radio talk show to tout benefits claimed by casino backers.

Council opponents and grassroots opposition dismissed such talk as hype from the army of lobbyists hired by Nevada-based casino giants. Naysayers argued that social and economic harm would outweigh any benefits.

The mayor said he liked whatever proposal would bring the most money into city coffers. Ford allies such as Councillor Michael Thompson repeatedly said the city’s share of casino revenues should be at least $100 million a year.

In addition, Ford expected the development would be paying about $50 million in annual property taxes. If it were located on city-owned land such as Exhibition Place, the city would also receive lease revenues.

And Ford wanted the winning casino operator to chip in $4.5 million annually to give each councillor about $100,000 a year to spruce up neighbourhood parks and open spaces.

The province’s offer of $53.7 million annually wouldn’t be a good deal for the city, he said, adding Premier Kathleen Wynne doesn’t seem to support a downtown casino.

“They’re wasting our time,” the mayor said. “They’ve wasted councillors’ time, they’ve wasted staff time. They’ve wasted a lot of taxpayers’ money doing this.”

In addition to a previous revenue-sharing offer, the OLG is now adding four per cent of gaming table revenue to the money municipalities will receive.

Under the new Municipality Contribution Agreement, as the deal is formally called, Sudbury and other municipalities will receive:
- 5.25 per cent on the first $65 million of slot revenue;
- 3 per cent on the next $135 million of slot revenue;
- 2.5 per cent on the next $300 million of slot revenue;
- 0.5 per cent on slot revenue above $500 million; and
- the new element, 4 per cent on table game revenue.

“In March 2013, at the request of the Premier of Ontario, OLG took a fresh look at its funding formula for host municipalities,” the OLG said in a press release Friday. “OLG then presented the government with results of its review. The principles of fairness and equal treatment guided OLG’s review of the formula and the determination of the new formula.

“Based on the new formula and implementing OLG’s modernization plan, OLG would expect to provide over $50 million more annually to host municipalities by 2017-18.”

In a separate press release Friday, Greater Sudbury Mayor Marianne Matichuk said she brought a small group of senior staff and Coun. Claude Berthiaume together last month to discuss the current funding formula and possible changes.

Following that meeting, Mayor Matichuk wrote a letter to OLG asking for an increase in revenue.

“I am encouraged that OLG has listened to municipalities who all want a fair deal,” Matichuk said in the release. “Working together as a team, myself, Coun. Berthiaume and senior staff brought about this success, and I thank them.

“With the additional 4% revenue on table games, this represents a potentially substantial new revenue stream for our community.”

The current funding agreement brings about $2.4 million annually to Greater Sudbury based on 390 slot machines and no table games. Assuming plans to build a casino in the city are successful, Greater Sudbury has been approved for 600 slot machine and 180 table games.

“OLG supports the local economies of our host communities across Ontario,” Rod Phillips, president and CEO, is quoted as saying in the release. “In addition to hosting fees, OLG’s current and future host communities benefit from local job creation, economic development, capital investments and property tax revenue.”

OLG currently provides nearly $2 billion annually to the Ontario government to help fund provincial priorities. OLG estimates that its plans to build casinos in gaming zones across the province will increase that amount to more than $3 billion.

The OLG’s hopes to pick a successful bidder to build casinos by the end of 2013. Companies must bid on the entire northern bundle, which includes Sudbury, North Bay, Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay and Kenora.

Caesars Entertainment, one of the world’s largest gaming and casino operators, has said publicly it’s interested in the Sudbury market, and that any development would include amenities.

Greater Sudbury City Council passed a resolution Feb. 26 supporting a casino development that “may” include a convention centre, a hotel, an arts centre and an OHL arena, although Caesars has yet to spell out the amenities it’s interested in building.

The OLG’s modernization process has come at the cost of Sudbury Downs, where the provincial gaming agency operated a slots facility since the 1990s in which revenue was shared between the city, the province and the horseracing industry.

Since taking office, Wynne has negotiated interim funding deals that allows for a shorted racing season in Sudbury and other tracks in Ontario. The province is also reportedly looking at long-term deals with tracks to help restore damage in some rural communities where the OLG process led to job losses.

The racing season in Sudbury this year is Sundays at 1:30 p.m. starting June 2 until Oct. 13.

“This last year has been very difficult for everyone involved in Ontario horse racing” said Pat MacIsaac, president of Sudbury Downs, in a press release earlier this month. “We are happy to be able to bring live harness racing back to the Greater Sudbury community for a 39th season.”